goetzpartners securities Limited
09-Apr-2018 / 15:24 GMT/BST
Free to access research and investor meetings in a post-MiFID2 world
Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Resurgent radiation on the turn
Multi-billion dollar acquisitions and healthy valuations herald the resurgence of interest in radiopharmaceuticals. Recently financed and with a largely new executive team, Actinium has a valuation that does not yet appear to reflect it’s prospects. Historically dragged down by manufacturing and supply chain delays, the company now looks back on track. Lead product Iomab-B in pivotal clinical trials looks to feed the growing hunger for stem cell transplantation. A pipeline of next generation radiopharmaceuticals promises efficacy in hard to treat blood cancers without the some times fatal consequences of the current toxin loaded products. Valued as little as one eighth of some its European peers, Actinium looks an attractive entry point for investors seeking a stake in this resurgent therapy. We initiate with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price of $4.00 / share.
Localised mass destruction – Too targeted or too toxic, many precision medicines have not lived up to expectations. Like laser guided munitions, molecular targeted radiation can bring localised mass destruction to cells which comprise tumours, or other target tissues, without damage to more distant non-target tissues.
Opening the door to a cure – One of a few potentially curative cancer therapies, human stem cell transplant currently requires harsh patient conditioning which can itself be deadly to the frail or the elderly. Actinium’s Iomab-B radiotherapy offers effective conditioning with reduced collateral damage. Iomab-B approval should open the door to more HSCT based ‘cures’.
A safer take on an effective target – While effective for a range of blood cancers, toxin-loaded CD33-targeted therapies are dogged by toxicity. With established proof-of-concept for safer therapy, phase II studies on Actinium’s Actimab positron radiopharmaceutical should read out in H2/2018E; a potential basis for large pharma partnering.
Leveraging positron platform – Actinium are seeking to leverage their proprietary Actinium Warhead Enabling Technology by teaming up with big pharma. A first deal with Astellas was secured in March 2018.
Significant upside – The prospect of significant clinical news flow from Actimab in H2/2018E and pivotal readout on Iomab-B suggests significant upside from current levels. While warrants attached to the recent $15m rights issue could be dilutive, our DCF and comparative valuation suggests that Actinium is fundamentally undervalued at current levels. Our analysis indicates a current fair value of $2.6 share rising to $5.0 / share on the back of positive phase 2 data in H2/2018E. We initiate with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a target price of $4.0 /share.
Dr. Chris Redhead | Analyst
goetzpartners securities Limited
The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, England, UK.
T +44 (0) 203 859 7725 | firstname.lastname@example.org / email@example.com
Registered in England No. 04684144.
Managing Directors: Dr Stephan Goetz, Martin Brunninger and Ulrich Kinzel.
GPSL publishes and distributes “Investment” Research and “Corporate Sponsored” Research. Our Corporate Sponsored Research is free to access and is not classified as an inducement in a post-MiFID2 world. GPSL does not offer any execution or market making services.
To be added, or to change your subscriptions or be removed / unsubscribed entirely from our CRM, please e-mail: ResearchProduction@goetzpartners.com
About GPSL: goetzpartners securities Limited is a member of the goetzpartners group and a leading true pan European investment bank and research firm. We bring together a wide range of expertise, insights and innovations to advance the interests of our clients around the world. The fast changing environment brings challenges for businesses and investors. Research innovation, digital transformation and disruptive business ideas reshuffle the corporate world in a yet unexperienced pace. Our sector knowledge and our global footprint bring together deep understanding of the industry, corporate intelligence and a wide network of top decision makers.
This research report is intended for use only by persons who qualify as professional investors or eligible counterparties (institutional investors) in the applicable jurisdiction, and not by any private individuals or other persons who qualify as retail clients.
This e-mail (including any attachments) from goetzpartners securities Limited (“GPSL”) is confidential and may contain information which is proprietary, privileged or otherwise legally protected against unauthorised use or disclosure. If you receive this e-mail in error or are not the intended recipient of this e-mail, please delete and destroy all copies in your possession, notify the sender that you have received this e-mail, and note that any review or dissemination of, or the taking of any action in reliance on this e-mail is expressly prohibited. GPSL shall not be liable for the improper or incomplete transmission of the information contained in this e-mail nor for any delay in its receipt or damage to your system. GPSL does not guarantee that the integrity of this e-mail has been maintained nor that this e-mail is free of viruses, interceptions or interference and makes no warranties in relation to these matters. This is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or investment products, or an official confirmation. GPSL record electronic and phone communications in accordance with FCA and MiFID2 regulations, they will be monitored for regulatory and training purposes. GPSL is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom (Firm Reference Number: 225563).
GPSL Equity Research publications are available on the following aggregators and via news distribution circuits (For Institutional Use Only): AlphaSense, Bloomberg (GOET), Capital IQ, EQS, FACTSET, RNS Reach and Thomson Reuters.
If you cannot click on the above hyperlink please copy the below link and paste it into your browser for the full pdf version of the equity research report:
Dissemination of a CORPORATE NEWS, transmitted by EQS Group.
End of Announcement – EQS News Service