Edison Investment Research Limited
06-Feb-2018 / 09:50 GMT/BST
London, UK, 6 February 2018
Edison issues outlook on Acarix (ACARIX)
Acarix has laid the groundwork in 2017 for sales development in 2018. The main subset of the key Dan-NICAD study was published in November 2017 and should boost medical awareness. As initial sales were slower than expected, sales forecasts have been adjusted although, with only two quarters’ sales data, these will be revised regularly. Good sales growth in Europe is expected from 2019. With no US trial announced our expected launch date is moved to 2022 from 2021. The indicative value is now SEK448m (formerly SEK728m), implying a fair value of SEK19.46/share (formerly SEK31.62/share). A new CEO will be appointed in 2018.
Given initial sales levels (but only two quarters of data), we have revised our short term 2017 and 2018 sales forecasts. Management has not issued any forward guidance. From 2019, we have revised success probabilities but left potential sales levels unchanged. Using a discounted cash flow model, a 12.5% discount rate and a terminal valuation the indicative value is now SEK448m (formerly SEK728m), implying a fair value of SEK19.46/share (formerly SEK31.62/share). The IPO price was SEK17.60/share in December 2016. A new CEO is due to be appointed.
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