Original-Research: M1 Kliniken AG (von GBC AG)

Original-Research: M1 Kliniken AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu M1 Kliniken AG

Unternehmen: M1 Kliniken AG

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 18.50 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: End FY 2019
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Cosmin Filker

Substantial increase in clinic locations implemented, financial year
exceeds expectations, expansion course to be continued, new business areas
to be developed
M1 Kliniken AG significantly expanded the number of locations in Germany
from 13 to 19 in 2017, therefore exceeding its own growth plans. With the
opening of six further locations in Leipzig, Wiesbaden, Münster, Berlin II,
Mannheim and Berlin III, the basis for an increase in beauty treatments was
expanded. The 150,000 beauty treatments completed in 2017 represent an
increase of 50% compared to the previous year.
On this basis, sales revenue climbed by 31.3% to EUR 47.19 million
(previous year: EUR 35.96 million). In our last year's annual study (dated
11/05/2017), we had predicted the opening of five further centres in 2017
and forecasted revenue of EUR 43.69 million. Our former forecast was
therefore exceeded. EBIT climbed by 31.0% to EUR 5.72 million (previous
year: EUR 4.36 million) and therefore in proportion to the increase in
sales. The EBIT margin of 12.1% (previous year: 12.1%) can be seen in
particular against the backdrop of the current expansion phase, which is
accompanied, for example, by a strong increase in workforce. In addition,
new locations are in the typical ramp-up phase, which is characterised by a
lower profitability level.
In the coming years, site expansion is to be continued. In the current
financial year, two more clinics have already been opened in Munich and
Frankfurt. According to our forecasts, there should be a total of 29
clinics in the M1 Group at the end of the financial year 2018. In the
process, not only is a 're-densification' planned in Germany, but an
international roll-out is also the focus of the corporate strategy.
Specifically, new openings could initially be made in Austria in order to
participate in the attractive market potential, which is similar to that in
Further revenue streams, such as the field of aesthetic dentistry covered
since the first quarter of 2018, should provide additional momentum. Rapid
integration of this new service into the existing clinic network should
allow for fast expansion of this treatment. In addition, the company will
continue to push the commercial sector for the higher-margin own-brands for
the retail segment. To this effect, the roll-out of the B2C business took
place at the beginning of 2018, which sees care products sold online and in
specialist centres under the brand name M1 Select (m1-select.de).
On this basis, we expect the growth momentum to continue, as well as an
expansion of the sales base over the coming financial years. In the current
growth phase, which is expected to extend over the coming financial years,
M1 Kliniken AG should be characterised by corresponding up-front
investments. For the coming financial years, we therefore only forecast a
constant development of the EBIT margin, which should stabilise between
12.2% (2018e) and 13.0% (2019e). After completion of the growth phase,
higher EBIT margins are possible, which we have taken into account in our
DCF valuation model.
As part of the DCF valuation model, the resulting fair value per share at
the end of the 2018 financial year corresponds to the stock price target of
EUR 18.50 (previously: EUR 16.15). The target price increase is a result of
the first inclusion of the higher 2020 estimates as the basis for the
continuity phase of the valuation model, as well as the roll-over effect.
We continue to assign the BUY rating.

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